A useful Theory of Change does more than display boxes and arrows. It makes the assumptions behind a programme open to discussion and testing.
Start with the change you hope to see
Describe the outcome in terms people affected by the programme would recognise. Then work backwards: what conditions need to be in place, who needs to act and which activities can plausibly contribute?
Make assumptions visible
Every pathway depends on things outside the programme’s direct control. Naming these assumptions helps teams identify risks, choose evidence to collect and decide when to adapt.
Use it as a learning tool
Review the Theory of Change when implementation or context changes. Ask what evidence supports each link, what remains uncertain and which questions matter most for the next decision.
A practical Theory of Change should be clear enough to guide measurement and flexible enough to improve as the team learns.